When you stare at numbers long enough, you start to see things. Note the wave of headlines about Florida and Covid-19 virus spiking. Consider a report this week that some labs only reported positive cases and that 100% of those tested were positive (oops), caught first by a local TV station. Then suddenly there were 15,300 cases reported on Sunday. Then cases are jumping in Sunbelt nursing homes. And finally, Florida hospitals are being overrun. Whew. Messages arrive from northern friends – “Are you okay? We hear about Florida!” For those who live in Florida, is it time to hunker down any more than we are already hunkered? Some say there should be another full shutdown. Should young people be terrified (they’re not!)? Should people in 55-plus communities be terrified (they are!) Should we examine the data more closely?
What is happening with testing? Here is the current Florida dashboard and the NYTimes representation of that data. First of all, for the counties with the largest population, it’s no surprise that the greatest number of cases (positive for Covid-19 as a result of testing) occurs there. Testing in Florida at one point was reserved for people with symptoms, revealing how Florida lagged behind in testing. Today, Florida is in the middle of the pack in terms of absolute numbers tested, according to Johns Hopkins tally. Florida has ramped up testing (as seen nearby with drive-through testing lines) – and symptoms are not required. To date, 300,000 have tested positive in Florida – of the 10,000 newest positives, 2500 were in Miami-Dade. You will note that the chart in the article is for South Florida, not the whole state. The article also notes the numbers hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19. As of today, the number tested positive is 301,810. So what’s behind those 15,300 new cases in Florida? These cases appeared suddenly as a result of a backlog delivering results from a single lab, GENETWRKx.
What is happening with hospitalizations and deaths? The Florida Department of Health has begun reporting hospitalizations (19,334) out of the total positive case count. You might also note total deaths of 4,521, out of the positive cases 301,810. Back to the Sunbelt article about nursing homes – facilities in the Tampa area are seeing a ‘800% cumulative increase in new cases among nursing home residents.’ Okay, now down to the details about deaths. The average age of death is in the upper 70’s for the largest county and is 77 across all counties. And in Pinellas County (Tampa area), 71% of deaths are tied to long-term care facilities. Right now, the health department report simply lists all facilities and the number of deaths, most of which are zero.
Why are so many people being tested? Just got another ‘Are you okay?’ call because someone in a northern state was listening to the above ‘news.’ Because testing is now more widely available, it’s happening – and odd reporting anomalies like Sunday’s drive up the numbers and thus the media interest. And also because some folks on television have expressed a hope that everyone in the United States will be tested. So many asymptomatic (i.e. healthy) people are being tested because they can be – pushing up the testing numbers and revealing more positive and asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people. What that means varies among those doing the analysis or adding clarification.
from Tips For Aging In Place https://www.ageinplacetech.com/blog/covid-19-statistics-what-are-they-saying
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